With mass shootings happening randomly every year in the United States, it may seem that there is no way to predict where the next horrific event is most likely to occur. In a new study published by ...

Temporal prediction is a fundamental function of neural systems. Recent results show that humans anticipate future events by calculating probability density functions, rather than hazard rates.

I was preparing for my early morning class back in January 2025 when I received a notice regarding an asteroid called 2024 YR4. It said the probability it could hit Earth was unusually high. As ...

When calculating the probability of an event, the number of elements in the relevant region and the total number of elements in the universal set, 𝑛(𝜉), must be known. For example, the probability ...

Events with very low a-priori probability but very high impact shape our lives to a significant degree, on an individual as well as a global level. Unfortunately, people have difficulties ...